AI  in  Meteorology

 

1904 ³â¿¡ ³ë¸£¿þÀÌ ±â»óÇÐÀÚ Vilhelm Bjerknes °¡ "¿ªÇаú ¹°¸®ÇÐ ¹®Á¦·Î¼­ÀÇ ±â»ó ¿¹º¸" ¶ó´Â ³í¹®À» ¹ßÇ¥ÇÔÀ¸·Î½á Çö´ë ±â»ó ¿¬±¸°¡ ½ÃÀ۵Ǿú´Ù. ±â»ó ¿¹º¸¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÃÖÃÊÀÌÀÚ ¿ÏÀüÇÑ °ø½ÄÈ­¸¦ ÅëÇÏ¿©, Bjerknes ´Â ¸ðµç ¼öÄ¡Àû ±â»ó ¿¹º¸ ¸ðµ¨ÀÇ ±â¹ÝÀ̵Ǵ ½ÇÇèÀûÀÌ¸ç µ¿½Ã¿¡ ÀÌ·ÐÀûÀÎ ±¸¼º¿ä¼Ò¸¦ ¸¸µé¾î ³Â´Ù. ¸ðµç ¼öÄ¡Àû ±â»ó ¿¹º¸ ¸ðµ¨Àº, ¨ç °ø°£À» °ÝÀÚ·Î ³ª´©¾úÀ» ¶§, ¨è °¢ °ÝÀÚ Á¡µéÀÇ »óÅ°¡ ´Ù¸¥ ÁöÁ¡ÀÇ »óÅ¿¡ ÀÇÇÏ¿© ¾î¶»°Ô º¯È­µÇ´Â°¡¸¦ ¾Ë±â À§ÇÏ¿© ´ë±â ¿ªÇÐÀ» Á¦¾îÇÏ´Â ¼öÇÐÀû °ü°è½ÄµéÀ» »ç¿ëÇÑ´Ù.

±â»ó ¿¹º¸¸¦ À§ÇÑ ¼öÄ¡ ¸ðµ¨À» ¸¸µé±â À§ÇÏ¿© ù ¹ø°·Î ÇØ¾ß ÇÒ ÀÏÀº ´ë»óÀÌ µÇ´Â Áö¸®ÇÐÀû ¿µ¿ªÀ» °ÝÀÚ·Î ³ª´©´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ±×¸² 10 Àº ÀÌ·¸°Ô ³ª´©¾îÁø °ÝÀÚ¿Í Æ¯Á¤ ½ÃÁ¡¿¡ °¢ °ÝÀÚ ÁöÁ¡¿¡ ´ëÇÏ¿© ¿ì¸®°¡ ÇÊ¿ä·Î ÇÏ´Â ¸î °¡Áö º¯¼öµéÀ» ³ªÅ¸³½´Ù. ¿Âµµ, dz¼Ó, ¹× ±â¾Ð µîÀÌ ±×·± º¯¼ö¿¡ ÇØ´çµÇ´Â °ÍµéÀÌ´Ù. Bjerknes ÀÇ ¸ðµ¨·Î ±â»óÀ» ¿¹ÃøÇϱâ À§Çؼ­ ù ¹ø°·Î ÇØ¾ß ÇÒ ÀÏÀº ƯÁ¤ ½ÃÀÛ ½ÃÁ¡¿¡ °¢ Áö¿ªÀÇ ÇØ´ç º¯¼ö °ªµéÀ» ¾Ë¾Æ³»´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù. °¢ Áö¿ª¿¡¼­ ÇÊ¿ä·Î ÇÏ´Â º¯¼ö °ªÀº Àΰø À§¼º, ºñÇà±â Á¶Á¾»ç, ±â»ó °üÃø ¼®¹Ú, ¹× ±âŸ ¼¼°è ±â»ó ÀÚ·á ³×Æ®¿öÅ© µîÀ» ÅëÇÏ¿© ¾ò¾îÁø ½ÇÁ¦ °üÃø °á°ú¸¦ »ç¿ëÇÏ¿©¾ß¸¸ ÇÑ´Ù.

 ¼öÄ¡Àû ±â»ó ¿¹º¸ ¸ðµ¨

º¯¼ö °ªµéÀ» ¾Ë¾Æ³ÂÀ¸¸é, ´ÙÀ½ ´Ü°è¿¡¼­´Â ½Ã°£ÀÌ °æ°úÇÏ´Â µ¿¾È ÀÌ °ªµéÀÌ ¾î¶»°Ô º¯Çϴ°¡¸¦ ¾Ë±â À§ÇÏ¿© ¼öÇÐÀû °ü°è½ÄÀ» »ç¿ëÇÑ´Ù. Áï, µÎ¹ø° °è»ê ´Ü°è¿¡¼­´Â ´ë±â¿¡ ´ëÇÑ º¹ÀâÇÑ ¼öÇÐ ¹æÁ¤½ÄÀ» Ç®¾î¾ß ÇÑ´Ù. (´ë±â¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Á¤º¸¸¦ ¾ò¾î³»´Â) °üÃø°ú (½Ã°£ÀÇ °æ°ú¿¡ µû¸¥ ±â»ó º¯È­¸¦ ÆľÇÇϱâ À§ÇÑ) °è»êÀ̶ó´Â µÎ °úÁ¤ÀÌ ¾ó¸¶³ª ±â¼úÀûÀ¸·Î 󸮵ǴÀ³Ä¿¡ µû¶ó¼­ ¿¹Ãø °á°ú°¡ ÁÁÀº°¡ ³ª»Û°¡°¡ °áÁ¤µÈ´Ù.

±â»ó ¿¹Ãø¿¡´Â ÀÏ¹Ý ¼øȯ ¸ðµ¨ (GCM : general circulation model) À̶ó ºÎ¸£´Â ¸ðµ¨ÀÌ ÀϹÝÀûÀ¸·Î »ç¿ëµÈ´Ù. ÀÌ ¸ðµ¨Àº ±×¸²°ú °°ÀÌ 3 Â÷¿ø °ÝÀÚ¸¦ »ç¿ëÇϸç, °¢ °ÝÀÚ »çÀÌÀÇ °ü°è¸¦ ³ªÅ¸³»´Â ¸Å¿ì Á¤±³ÇÑ °ü°è½ÄÀ» »ç¿ëÇÑ´Ù. GCM ¿¡¼­ »ç¿ëµÇ´Â °ü°è½ÄÀº ´ÙÀ½°ú °°´Ù.

´ë±âÀÇ ¼öÆò À̵¿À» À§ÇÑ ³»ºñ¾î ½ºÅäÅ© ¹æÁ¤½Äµé : ÀÌ ¹æÁ¤½ÄµéÀº µ¿-¼­, ºÏ-³² ¹æÇâÀ¸·ÎÀÇ °ø±â µ¢¾î¸®ÀÇ À̵¿À» ³ªÅ¸³»´Âµ¥ »ç¿ëµÈ´Ù. ÀÌ À̵¿Àº Àϸí ÄÚ¸®¿Ã¸® Coriolis ÀÇ ÈûÀ̶ó ºÎ¸£´Â Áö±¸ÀÇ ÀÚÀü¿¡ ÀÇÇÏ¿© »ý±â´Â Èû, ¼öÆò ¹æÇâÀ¸·ÎÀÇ ´ë±â¾ÐÀÇ º¯È­À², ¸¶Âû·Â°ú ³­·ù¿Í °°ÀÌ Èð¾îÁ® »ç¶óÁö´Â Èû, ¹× ¿îµ¿·®ÀÇ »ý¼º°ú ¼Ò¸ê µîÀÌ °ø±â¿¡ ¹ÌÄ¡´Â ¿µÇâ°ú °ü°èµÈ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.

ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ ¹æÁ¤½Äµé ¿Ü¿¡µµ GCM ¿¡¼­´Â ±â»ó¿¡ ¿µÇâÀ» ¹ÌÄ¡´Â ¿©·¯ °¡Áö ¸Å°³º¯¼öµéÀ» »ç¿ëÇÑ´Ù. ±×°Íµé Áß¿¡¼­ ¸î °¡Áö Áß¿äÇÑ °ÍÀº ´ÙÀ½°ú °°Àº °ÍÀÌ´Ù.

¸¶Áö¸·À¸·Î, GCM ÀÌ ½ÇÁ¦·Î ±â»óÀ» ¿¹ÃøÇϴµ¥ °áÁ¤ÀûÀÎ ¿ªÇÒÀ» ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀº ´ÙÀ½°ú °°Àº º¯¼öµéÀÌ´Ù. GCM Àº ÀÌ º¯¼öµéÀ» Á¶ÇÕÇÏ¿© ±â»óÀÇ ¿¹Ãø¿¡ »ç¿ëÇÑ´Ù.

GCM ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ±¸Ã¼ÀûÀÎ ¿¹·Î¼­, ¿µ±¹ ±â»óû¿¡¼­ ¸¸µç ¸ðµ¨¿¡ ´ëÇÏ¿© ¾Ë¾Æº¸ÀÚ. ÀÌ ¸ðµ¨Àº ÁöÇ¥¸é¿¡¼­ ½ÃÀÛÇÏ¿© 25 Km (80,000 ÇÇÆ®) ³ôÀ̱îÁö¸¦ 15 ±¸°£ÀÇ ´ë±âÃþÀ¸·Î ³ª´©¾ú´Ù. ¶ÇÇÑ, °¢°¢ÀÇ °èÃþÀº ¼öÆò ¹æÇâÀ¸·Î ¾à 150 Km °Å¸®ÀÇ ±¸°£À¸·Î ³ª´µ¾î, Àüü ¸ðµ¨Àº 350,000 °³ÀÇ °ÝÀÚ ±¸°£À» °®´Â ±×¹°¸ÁÀ¸·Î ±¸¼ºµÈ´Ù. °¢°¢ÀÇ °ÝÀÚ Á¡µé¿¡´Â 12 ½Ã°£ °£°ÝÀ¸·Î Áö±¸ Àü¿ª¿¡¼­ °üÃøµÈ ¿Âµµ, ¾Ð·Â, dz¼Ó, ¹× ½Àµµ °ªÀÌ ÇÒ´çµÇ°í, ÀÌ °ªµéÀÇ º¯È­¸¦ ³ªÅ¸³»´Â ¹æÁ¤½ÄÀº ÄÄÇ»Å͸¦ ÀÌ¿ëÇÏ¿© 15 ºÐ °£°ÝÀ¸·Î 󸮵ȴ٠(Áï, ÄÄÇ»ÅÍ·Î 15 ºÐÀÌ ¼Ò¿äµÈ´Ù). ÀÌ·¸°Ô °è»êµÈ °á°ú´Â °üÃø ½ÃÁ¡À¸·ÎºÎÅÍ 6 ÀÏ°£ÀÇ ±â»óÀ» ¿¹ÃøÇÏ´Â ÀÚ·á·Î ¾²ÀδÙ. ±â»ó ¿¹º¸¿¡ ÇÊ¿äÇÑ °è»ê·®ÀÌ ¾ó¸¶³ª ¸¹Àº°¡¸¦ ÀÌÇØÇϱâ À§Çؼ­, ÇÏ·çÄ¡ Àϱ⿹º¸¿¡ ÇÊ¿äÇÑ °è»ê·®À» ¾Ë¾Æº¸ÀÚ. ÇÏ·çÄ¡ Àϱ⿹º¸¸¦ ¿¹ÃøÇϱâ À§Çؼ­´Â ¾à 100 Á¶¹øÀÇ °è»êÀÌ ÇÊ¿äÇϸç, »çÀ̹ö-25 ¶ó´Â ÀÏÁ¾ÀÇ ½´ÆÛÄÄÇ»ÅÍ·Î °è»êÇÏ´Â °æ¿ì 4ºÐ 30ÃÊ °¡·®ÀÌ °É¸°´Ù. ........ (John L. Casti 1997)

term :

³¯¾¾ (Meteorology)    ¿¹Ãø (Prediction)   ºÒÈ®½Ç¼º (Uncertainty)   È®·ü (Probability)    ÆÛÁö (Fuzzy)    ÄÄÇ»ÅÍ (Computer)     ½´ÆÛ ÄÄÇ»ÅÍ (Super Computer)      ÀΰøÁö´É (Artificial Intelligence)   Àü¹®°¡½Ã½ºÅÛ (Expert System)    º¹Àâ°è (Complex System)    

site :

AI Topics : Earth & Atmospheric Science : AAAI : AI ±â»óÇÐ ½Ã½ºÅÛÀÇ ¹ßÀüÀ» ÀÌ·é ÃßÁø·ÂÀº ±â»ó¿¹Ãø½Ã ÀÇÁ¸ÇÏ´Â °Å´ëÇÑ µ¥ÀÌÅ͸¦ È¿À²ÀûÀ¸·Î ´Ù·ê Çʿ伺 ¶§¹®À̾ú´Ù. ¿¹¸¦µé¸é ¿ì¸®´Â À§¼º¿¡¼­ ¿ø°ÝÀ¸·Î ¾ò¾îÁø µ¥ÀÌÅ͸¦ ÃÊ´ç 10 Megabyte ¾¿ ¹Þ°í ÀÖ´Ù.......

±â»ó¿¬±¸¼Ò Forecasting Research Lab   

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AI and Meteorology : Meteorological Research Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada : Bjarne K. Hansen ¡Ú¡Ú¡Ú : AI and Meteorology, Computer Vision of Cloud, Modernization, Optimal Routing, Selected Papers ....... Fuzzy case-based prediction of ceiling and visibility  ......... SIGMAR: A fuzzy expert system for critiquing marine forecasts : ±â»óÇÐ Á¤º¸¿Í Áö½ÄÀº ÈçÈ÷ ºÒÈ®½ÇÇÏ°í, ¾Ö¸Å¸ðÈ£ÇÏ¿© Á¤ÀÇÇϱⰡ ¾î·Æ´Ù. ÆÛÁö ³í¸®´Â Àü¹®°¡½Ã½ºÅÛÀ¸·Î ÇÏ¿©±Ý ºÒÈ®½ÇÇÑ µ¥ÀÌÅÍ¿Í Á¤º¸·Î¼­ ÀûÀýÈ÷ ¼öÇàÇÏ°Ô ¸¸µç´Ù. ÆÛÁö¿¡¼­´Â Àü¹®°¡°¡ ¸»·Î½á Ç¥ÇöÇÑ ±ÔÄ¢µéÀ» È¿À²ÀûÀ¸·Î ±¸ÇöÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ±â»óÇÐÀº µû¶ó¼­ ÆÛÁö ȯ°æÀ¸·Î Ãë±ÞµÈ´Ù. Àμö (argument) °¡ ÆÛÁö ³í¸®¿¡ ±âÃÊÇÑ ¹æ¹ýÀÇ ÀÀ¿ëÀ» À§ÇØ ¸¸µé¾îÁ®¼­ ±â»óÇÐ µ¥ÀÌÅÍ¿Í ±â»ó¿¹ÃøÀÇ Æò°¡¿Í °ü·ÃµÈ ¹®Á¦ÀÇ ÀûÀýÇÑ Çظ¦ ã°ÔµÈ´Ù. Àü¹®°¡½Ã½ºÅÛ SIGMAR ´Â ±â»ó µ¥ÀÌÅ͸¦ Çؼ®ÇϱâÀ§ÇØ ÆÛÁö ¹æ¹ýÀ» ½á¼­ ¼³°èµÇ¾ú´Ù ........ Fuzzy Logic in Environmental Sciences: A Bibliography

Committee on AI Applications to Environmental Science : American Meteorological Society : AI ¶ó´Â ¸»Àº ±â»óÇÐÀÚ¿Í °ü·Ã°ú¸ñ¿¡¼­ ÀÏÇÏ´Â »ç¶÷¿¡°Ô À¯¿ëÇÑ Ã·´Ü ÄÄÇ»ÅÍ ±â¼úÀ» ÀǹÌÇÑ´Ù. AI ¿¡ °ü½ÉÀÌ ÀÖ´Â ¸â¹öµéÀº ±â»ó¿¹Ãø ±â¼úÀ» °³¼±ÇÏ·Á´Â ±â»ó°üÃøÀÚ, Áö´É°ú Àΰ£ ÄÄÇ»ÅÍ º¸Á¶¸¦ »ç¿ëÇÏ¿© Àΰ£ÀÇ ¿¹Ãø ȯ°æÀ» °³¼±ÇÏ·Á´Â ½É¸®ÇÐÀÚ, Àΰ£°ú ±â°èÀÇ ¼º´ÉÀ» Æò°¡Çϴµ¥ Èï¹ÌÀÖ´Â Åë°èÇÐÀÚ, ÃÖ±ÙÀÇ ±â»ó Áö½ÄÀÇ Á¶Á÷ÀûÀÌ°í º¯ÇüµÈ ±âÃʸ¦ ¸¸µå·Á´Â ¿¬±¸ÀÚ, ¼¶¼¼ÇÏ°í À¯¿ëÇÑ ÄÄÇ»ÅÍ ÇÁ·Î±×·¥À» °³¹ßÇÏ·Á´Â ÄÄÇ»ÅÍ °úÇÐÀÚ¸¦ Æ÷ÇÔÇÑ´Ù. ........ link

Machine Learning for Meteorology : NCARAI (Navy Center for Applied Research in AI) : Naval Research Lab : Monterey  Marine Meteorology Division ¿¡¼­´Â ±â»ó ºÐ¼®À» À§ÇØ Àü¹®°¡½Ã½ºÅÛÀ» ¼³°èÇÏ°í ±¸ÃàÇÑ´Ù. °ú°Å ¼ö³âµ¿¾È feature selection and clustering ¿¡ ¼ÓÇÏ´Â ¸î °³ÀÇ ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ®¸¦ ÇÔ²² ¼öÇàÇÏ¿´´Ù. ÀΰøÀ§¼º ±â»óÇÐ project page.

Medex : turorial : MEDEX [MEDiterranean EXpert system] Àº ÁöÁßÇØ (Mediterranean sea) ÀÇ ´Ù¾çÇÑ Áö¿ª¿¡ ºÎ´Â °­Ç³ (ÃÊ´ç 34 knots or 17 meters ¸¦ ÃÊ°úÇÏ´Â ¹Ù¶÷¼Óµµ) ÀÇ ½ÃÀÛ, Áö¼Ó, Á¾·á¸¦ ¿¹ÃøÇϱâ À§ÇØ AI ±â¼úÀ» »ç¿ëÇÏ´Â ¼ÒÇÁÆ®¿þ¾î ÆÐÅ°ÁöÀÌ´Ù(MEDEX winds). ÁöÁßÇØ¿¡¼­ 25 ³âÀÇ °æÇèÀ» °¡Áø ±â»óÇÐÀÚ¿Í Àü¹®°¡ÀÇ Àü¹®Áö½ÄÀ» Ç¥ÇöÇÏ´Â Àü¹®°¡½Ã½ºÅÛ ¹æ¹ýÀ» »ç¿ëÇÑ´Ù. ¶ÇÇÑ ºÒÈ®½ÇÇÏ°í ºÎÁ¤È®ÇÑ Áö½ÄÀÇ Ç¥ÇöÀ» ´Ù·ç´Â ÆÛÁö ÁýÇÕ ¹æ¹ýÀ» »ç¿ëÇÑ´Ù. .......

Cloud Classifier : Lab of Computer and Information Science at Helsinki University of Technology : ÀΰøÀ§¼º¿¡¼­ ¾òÀº µ¥ÀÌÅÍ´Â Çɶõµå ±â»óû (Finnish Meteorological Institute)¿¡¼­ ³¯¾¾¿¹Ãø°ú Àå±â¿¹Ãø¿¡ »ç¿ëµÈ´Ù. ÇöÀç ¿¬±¸ÀÇ ÁÖ¿äÇÑ µ¿±â´Â À§¼º À̹ÌÁö¸¦ Çؼ®ÇÏ´Â ÀÚµ¿È­µÈ ¹æ¹ýÀÌ ÇÊ¿äÇϱ⠶§¹®ÀÌ´Ù. ........

paper :

±â»ó ¿¹º¸ : John L. Casti

3rd Conference on AI Applications to the Environmental Sciences, AMS, February 2003

The Radar Echo Classifier: A Fuzzy Logic Algorithm for the WSR-88D
Pricing a financial instrument to guarantee the accuracy of a weather forecast
Nonlinear Diagnostics of Weather Regimes in the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting Model
Fuzzy image processing applied to time series analysis
Simplified nonlinear principal component analysis
Development of an Events-Oriented Verification System Using Image Processing Algorithms
Fuzzy Case-Based Prediction of Cloud Ceiling and Visibility
Application of knowledge discovery from databases to remote weather assessment
Adaptive Data Fusion of Meteorological Forecast Modules
A Fuzzy Logic System for Automated Short Term Aviation Weather Forecasts