Probability
È®·ü¿¡ °üÇÑ Çй®Àû ޱ¸°¡ ½ÃÀÛµÈ 18 ¼¼±âÀÌ·¡ ´Ù¾çÇÑ À̷еéÀÌ µîÀåÇß´Ù. ±×¸®°í ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ À̷п¡ ´ëÇÑ ºÐ·ùµµ ¿©·¯ °¡Áö ¹æ¹ýÀ¸·Î Á¦½ÃµÇ¾ú´Ù. È®·ü¿¡ °üÇÑ ÀÌ·ÐÀº °íÀüÀû ÀÌ·Ð(classical theory), ¼±ÇèÀû ÀÌ·Ð(a priori theory), »ó´ëºóµµ ÀÌ·Ð(relative frequency theory), ±×¸®°í ÁÖ°üÁÖÀÇ ÀÌ·Ð(subjectivist theory)À¸·Î ³ª´¶´Ù. (¼ÛÇϼ® 1998)
´ëÇ¥ÀûÀÎ È®·üÀû ÀÌ·ÐÀ¸·Î´Â ³í¸®Àû ÇØ¼®¿¡ ±â¹ÝÀ» µÎ°í ÀÖ´Â Ä«¸£³³ÀÇ ÀÌ·Ð, ¼ºÇâÀû ÇØ¼®¿¡ ±â¹ÝÀ» µÎ°í ÀÖ´Â Æ÷ÆÛ (Popper) ÀÇ ÀÌ·Ð, ÁÖ°üÀû ÇØ¼®¿¡ ±â¹ÝÀ» µÎ°í ÀÖ´Â º£ÀÌÁîÁÖÀÇ (Bayesianism), ±×¸®°í ºóµµÀû ÇØ¼®¿¡ ±â¹ÝÀ» µÎ°í ÀÖ´Â ¶óÀÌÇî¹ÙÇÏ (Reichenbach) ÀÇ ÀÌ·Ð, ±â¾î¸® (Giere) ÀÇ ÀÌ·Ð, ¸ÞÀÌ¿ä (Mayo) ÀÇ ¿ÀÂ÷Åë°èÇÐ µîÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù. ... ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ À̷еéÀº È®·ü¿¡ °üÇÑ ¼·Î´Ù¸¥ ÇØ¼®¿¡ ±â¹ÝÀ» µÎ°í Àֱ⠶§¹®¿¡ °úÇÐÀû Ã߸®ÀÇ º»¼º°ú Ư¡À» °¢ÀÚ ´Ù¸¥ ¹æ½ÄÀ¸·Î ÆÄ¾ÇÇÑ´Ù. (ÀÌ¿µÀÇ 2003)
... È®·ü ÀÌ ¾î¶»°Ô ÀÌÇØµÇ°í ¼³¸íµÉ ¼ö Àִ°¡ ¶ó´Â Áú¹®Àº ³í¸®ÇÐÀ̳ª ¼öÇÐÀÇ ¹®Á¦ÀϻӸ¸ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó ÀÏ»ó¾ð¾îÀÇ Àǹ̷ÐÀÇ ¹®Á¦¿Íµµ °ü·ÃµÈ´Ù°í ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ°Ú´Ù. ¶ÇÇÑ ÀÚ¿¬°úÇÐ ÀÌ·ÐÀÌ ÀÇÁ¸ÇÏ´Â ±Í³³Àû ÀϹÝÈ´Â ±Ã±ØÀûÀ¸·Î È®·üÀÇ ¹®Á¦À̱⠶§¹®¿¡ °úÇÐöÇп¡ À־µ È®·ü ÀÌ·ÐÀº ´ë´ÜÈ÷ Áß¿äÇÑ ¹®Á¦°¡ ¾Æ´Ò ¼ö ¾ø´Ù.
È®·ü·Ð ¹× Åë°èÇÐ (Statistics) ÀÇ ÀÀ¿ëÀº ÀÎÁ¢ Çй® ºÐ¾ßµé Áß ÇϳªÀÎ Àü»êÇп¡¼µµ ¿À·§µ¿¾È ´Ù¾çÇÏ°Ô ÀÌ·ç¾îÁ® ¿Ô´Ù. ƯÈ÷ ÀΰøÁö´É (Artificial Intelligence) ºÐ¾ß¿¡¼´Â ÃÊâ±âºÎÅÍ ºÒÈ®½ÇÇÑ Áö½ÄÀÇ Ç¥Çö°ú 󸮿¡ È®·ü ¹× Åë°èÀû À̷еéÀ» ÀÀ¿ëÇϰí ÀÖ´Ù. ¿¹¸¦µé¾î, Àü¹®°¡½Ã½ºÅÛ (Expert System) Áß¿¡¼ Ãʱ⠽ýºÅÛ¿¡ ÇØ´çµÇ´Â PROSPECTOR ¹× MYCIN Àº °¢°¢ º£ÀÌÁîÈ®·ü (Bayesian Probability) °ú Stanford Certainty Theory (È®½Åµµ (Certainty Factor)) ¶ó´Â µ¶ÀÚÀûÀÎ ¹æ¹ýÀ» ÀÌ¿ëÇÏ¿´À¸¸ç, ±× ¿Ü¿¡µµ ¸¹Àº ½Ã½ºÅÛµéÀÌ Zadeh ÀÇ Fuzzy ÀÌ·ÐÀ̳ª Dempster ¿Í Shafer ÀÇ Dempster-Shafer Áõ°ÅÀÌ·Ð (Theory of Evidence) µîÀ» »ç¿ëÇÏ¿© Áö½ÄÀÇ ºÒÈ®½Ç¼º (Uncertainty) ¹®Á¦¸¦ ÇØ°áÇϰí ÀÖ´Ù (½Å¾ç±Ô 1995).
term :
¼öÇÐ (Mathematics) ³í¸®ÇÐ (Logic) öÇÐ (Philosophy) Åë°èÇÐ (Statistics) ÀΰøÁö´É (Artificial Intelligence) Àü¹®°¡½Ã½ºÅÛ (Expert System) PROSPECTOR MYCIN º£ÀÌÁîÈ®·ü (Bayesian Probability) È®½Åµµ (Certainty Factor) ÆÛÁö (Fuzzy) Dempster-Shafer ÀÌ·Ð (Dempster-Shafer Theory) ºÒÈ®½Ç¼º (Uncertainty) ±Í³³¹ý (Induction)
video :
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