¿ì¸®ÀÇ ¸ÅÀÏ ¸ÅÀÏÀÇ Ãß·Ð (Reasoning) Àº Á¤¹ÐÇÏÁö ¾ÊÁö¸¸ ±×·³¿¡µµ ¸Å¿ì È¿À²ÀûÀÌ´Ù. ÀºÇÏ°è¿¡¼­ À¯ÀüÀÚ±îÁö ÀÚ¿¬ ±× ÀÚü´Â ±Ù»çÀûÀÌ¸ç ºÎÁ¤È®ÇÏ´Ù (approximate and inexact). öÇÐÀû °³³äµéÀº ÃÖ¼ÒÇÑÀÇ Á¤¹Ð¼º ¸¸À» °¡Áú»ÓÀÌ´Ù.  ¸¶À½, Áö°¢, ±â¾ï, Áö½Ä À̶õ ¸»µéÀº °íÁ¤µÈ °³³äµµ ¾Æ´Ï¸ç  ¸íÈ®ÇÑ Àǹ̸¦ °¡Áö´Â °Íµµ ¾Æ´ÏÁö¸¸, »ç¶÷µé°£ÀÇ ´ëÈ­¿¡¼­ ¾î¶² °ÍÀÎÁö ¶æÀº ÅëÇÑ´Ù (make sense) ....... (Gian-Carlo Rota, mathematician quoted by Arturo Sangalli, "The Importance of Being Fuzzy and Other Insights from the Border between Math and Computers")

paper

ºÒÈ®½Ç¼ºÀ̶õ "ÆÇ´ÜÀ̳ª ÀÇ»ç°áÁ¤¿¡ ÇÊ¿äÇÑ ÀûÀýÇÑ Á¤º¸ÀÇ ºÎÁ·" À̶ó ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. Áï ºÒÈ®½ÇÇÑ Á¤º¸³ª ¾Ö¸ÅÇÑ Á¤º¸, À߸øµÈ Á¤º¸µîÀº ÀÇ»ç°áÁ¤ (decision making) ¿¡ À־ ºÒÈ®½Ç¼ºÀ» Áõ´ë½ÃŲ´Ù. ¿øÇÏ´Â °á·Ð¿¡ µµ´ÞÇϱâÀ§ÇØ ÇÊ¿äÇÑ ¸ðµç °¡´ÉÇÑ »ç½ÇµéÀ» ¾È´Ù´Â °ÍÀº ºÒ°¡´ÉÇÏ´Ù. µû¶ó¼­ Á¤º¸°¡ ºÎÁ·ÇÑ ½ÃÁ¡¿¡¼­ ¿¬¿ª¹ý (Deduction), ±Í³³¹ý (Induction), »óÁ¤³í¹ý (Abduction) µîÀÇ ¹æ¹ýÀ» »ç¿ëÇÏ¿© Ãß·ÐÇÑ´Ù. ¼öÇÐÀû ³í¸®¿Í °°ÀÌ ¿ÀÁ÷ true or false ¸¸À» ´Ù·ç´Â °áÁ¤·ÐÀû (deterministic) ¹æ¹ýÀ¸·Î´Â ½ÇÁ¦·Î ¹ß»ýÇÏ´Â ºÒÈ®½Ç¼ºÀ» Á¦´ë·Î ³ªÅ¸³¾¼ö ¾ø´Ù.¸ðµç Áö½Ä¿¡ ºÒÈ®½Ç¼ºÀÌ ¾ø´Â °æ¿ì¸¦ °¡Á¤ÇÏ¿© ³í¸®Àû Ãß·ÐÀ¸·Î½á ¸íÁ¦³ª »ç½ÇÀÇ true, false ¸¦ ¸íÈ®ÇÏ°Ô °áÁ¤ÁöÀ» ¼ö ÀÖ´Â »óȲÀ» Á¤È®ÇÑ Ãß·Ð (exact reasoning) À̶ó ÇÑ´Ù.

½Ç»ýÈ°¿¡ À־ ¾î¶°ÇÑ »ç½ÇÀ̳ª Áö½Ä¿¡ ´ëÇÑ È®½Ç¼ºÀÌ 100 %¶ó°í ÇÏ´Â °æ¿ì´Â ¿ÀÈ÷·Á µå¹°´Ù. °ÅÀÇ ÇÊ¿¬ÀûÀ¸·Î ºÒÈ®½Ç¼ºÀ» ³»Æ÷ÇÏ°í ÀÖ¾î À̸¦ Ç¥ÇöÇÏ°í ó¸®ÇÒ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ±â´ÉÀÌ Àü¹®°¡½Ã½ºÅÛ (Expert System) ¿¡ Æ÷ÇԵǾî ÀÖ¾î¾ß ÇÑ´Ù. ±×·¸Áö ¾ÊÀ¸¸é Àü¹®°¡½Ã½ºÅÛÀÇ °¡Ä¡´Â ¶³¾îÁú¼ö ¹Û¿¡ ¾ø´Ù. Àǻ簡 Áø´Ü (Diagnosis) À» ÇÒ ¶§ " ±Þ¼º Ä¡¼ö¿°ÀÌ´Ù" " °£¾ÏÀÌ´Ù" ¶ó°í Áø´Ü (decision making) À» ÇϰԵǴµ¥ "ÀÌ°ÍÀº 100% ±Þ¼ºÄ¡¼ö¿°ÀÌ´Ù" "100% °£¾ÏÀÌ´Ù" ¶ó°í´Â Àå´ãÇÒ ¼ö ¾ø´Ù. Àú¸íÇÑ ¾î¶² Àǻ絵 ¸»³â¿¡ ÀÚ±âÀÇ ¿ÀÁøÀ²ÀÌ 20 %¸¦ ³Ñ¾ú´Ù°í Åä·ÎÇÏ¿´´Ù.¿ÀÈ÷·Á " ±Þ¼º Ä¡¼ö¿°ÀÏ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ 70% ,Ä¡¼ö±«»ç °¡´É¼ºÀÌ 20% ,Ä¡¼öÃæÇ÷ÀÏ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ 10% " ¿Í °°ÀÌ Áø´ÜÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ ´õ Á¤È®ÇÒ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. µû¶ó¼­ ±Þ¼ºÄ¡¼ö¿°À̶ó°í Áø´Ü½Ã ºÒÈ®½Ç¼ºÀ» ³»Æ÷ÇÏ°Ô µÈ´Ù. ÀÌ¿Í°°ÀÌ ½Ç»ýÈ°¿¡¼­ÀÇ ´ëºÎºÐÀÇ ¹®Á¦´Â deterministic ÇÏÁö ¾Ê°í ¾î´ÀÁ¤µµÀÇ ºÒÈ®½Ç¼ºÀ» °¡Áø´Ù.  

ºÒÈ®½Ç¼ºÀÌ ¹ß»ýÇÏ´Â ¿øÀÎÀº °¢Á¾ ¿¡·¯ (Error) °¡ Æ÷ÇԵȴÙ. ¿¹¸¦µé¸é ºÒ¿ÏÀü¼º(Incompletness) , ¾Ö¸Å¸ðÈ£ÇÔ (Vagueness or Ambiguity), ºÎÁ¤È®ÇÔ (Incorrectness), ÃøÁ¤ ¿¡·¯ (Errors of Measurement), ½Ã½ºÅÛ ¿¡·¯ (Systematic error), ¾î¸²ÁüÀÛÀÇ ¿¡·¯ (Error of Randomness), Ãß·Ð ¿¡·¯ (Error in Reasoning, ±Í³³¹ý°ú »óÁ¤³í¹ý¿¡¼­ÀÇ ¿À·ù°¡´É¼º) µîÀÌ Æ÷ÇԵȴÙ.

term :

È®·ü (Probability)   Ãß·Ð (Reasoning)   Àü¹®°¡½Ã½ºÅÛ (Expert System)   Áø´Ü (Diagnosis)    ¿¹Ãø (Prediciton)   º£ÀÌÁîÁ¤¸® (Baye's Theorem)   È®½Åµµ (Certainty Factor)   ÆÛÁö (Fuzzy)   Dempster-Shafer ÀÌ·Ð (Dempster-Shafer Theory)   ¿ªÀüÆÄ (Back-propagation)   ¿¡·¯ (Error)

site :

Wikipedia : Uncertainty

AI Topics : Uncertainty

Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI)

AI on the web : Reasoning with Uncertainty : Stuart Russell